黑料正能量

Civil Society Participation and Suicide Rates: A Cross-National Analysis

Lance Y. Hunter, PhD

2024-09-17

Previous valuable research has examined the effect individual-level social and psychological factors have on suicidality. However, scholarship has yet to investigate the role civil society participation plays in suicide rates cross-nationally. Thus, this study examines the effect civil society participation has on suicide rates in 156 countries from varying levels of development from 2000 鈥� 2019 from Africa, Asia, Europe, Latin America, the Middle East, and North America. When including standard controls and controlling for potential endogeneity, the findings indicate that civil society participation, both political and non-political, has a negative and statistically significant effect on suicide rates. The results suggest that both political and non-political forms of civil society participation may produce positive social and psychological benefits that are associated with lower suicide rates.

Chinese and US Overseas Foreign Direct Investment and Democracy in the Developing World

Glen Biglaiser, Lance Y. Hunter, and Kelan (Lilly) Lu

2024-07-28

This paper integrates the political influence and foreign capital literatures and examines the association between United States and Chinese overseas foreign direct investment (FDI) and host states鈥� political institutions. Using up to 109 developing countries from 2003 to 2019, and employing two-stage least squares selection modeling, we find negative and significant relationships between Chinese FDI and host states鈥� democracy while US FDI has positive and significant associations. Our study suggests Chinese FDI and host state leaders may mutually benefit from increasing authoritarianism, producing closer political and economic ties between China and the developing world.

Analyzing influence operations on Facebook: an exploratory study

Craig Albert, Lance Y. Hunter, Samantha Mullaney, Meagan Mays

2024-05-01

Recently, there have been groundbreaking studies that seek to create unique cybersecurity datasets used to empirically test theories related to strategic cybersecurity. To date, however, this research has neglected cyber-enabled information operations (CEIO). With the remarkable amount of information operations being reported on social media platforms such as Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram, there is a substantial gap in the literature regarding empirical studies on CEIO using cross-national datasets. This exploratory, descriptive study seeks to remedy this dilemma. To do so, this paper investigates the question, 鈥淲hat are the political and economic characteristics of states that are most likely to be targeted by CEIO over social media on Facebook?鈥� To investigate, this exploratory, descriptive study utilizes a unique Information Operations Threat Report Dataset (2020) based on Facebook鈥檚 release of 2020 influence operations information that captures CEIO on its platform from 2017 to 2020. A descriptive data analysis reveals that mixed regimes (i.e., states that are partially authoritarian and democratic) and slightly wealthier states are more likely to be targeted in CEIO on Facebook. These exploratory findings provide useful insights into what types of states may be more susceptible to CEIO attacks on Facebook.

Chinese Overseas Foreign Direct Investment and Online Digital Freedom in Developing Countries

Lance Y. Hunter, Glen Biglaiser, Kelan (Lilly) Lu

2024-04-30

Although studies have shown China鈥檚 growing influence on developing countries鈥� policies, little empirical work has considered the relationship between Chinese overseas foreign direct investment (FDI) and host countries鈥� online digital freedom. Considering as many as 112 developing countries from 2003 to 2019, and using a two-stage least squares selection modeling approach, we find an association between Chinese FDI and four types of limits on online digital freedom. Conversely, when we substitute global FDI (excluding Chinese FDI), we obtain different results, suggesting there is something unique about Chinese multinational corporations and online digital freedom. Our research indicates that China and host states鈥� domestic leaders mutually benefit by restricting online digital freedom.

The Effect of Terrorism on Income Inequality

Ronald J McGauvran, Glen Biglaiser, Lance Y Hunter, Hoon Lee

2024-04-15

Conflict research has recently found that increased inequality weakens institutional conditions, opening the door for terrorism. While this research often accounts for endogeneity, or the possibility of a reverse causal relationship, there has yet to be an empirical investigation of the impact of terrorism on income inequality. Using a sample of 139 countries between 1994 and 2018, we show that both domestic and transnational terrorism result in higher levels of income inequality. Our results are consistent for both pre- and post-tax and transfer inequality as well as multiple model specifications. Additionally, we explore multiple potential causal mechanisms that link terrorism and income inequality finding that the effect is, in part, due to terrorism鈥檚 negative effects on institutional stability, increased military expenditure, possibly to fund counterterrorism operations, and reduced foreign capital, especially for greenfield investment. Our analysis indicates a positive relationship between terrorism and inequality and the mechanisms that produce the effect, contributing to the terrorism and inequality literatures.

Telework and Work Flexibility in the United States Federal Government Post-Pandemic

Lance Y. Hunter, Martha Ginn, Wesley L. Meares, William Hatcher

2024-04-11

A decade before the COVID-19 pandemic, the United States (US) federal government was working to create flexible work environments for employees under the 2010 Telework Enhancement Act. Given this reality and the growing desire for greater flexibility of workers inspired by the 鈥淕reat Resignation鈥� during the pandemic, the US federal government appears to have recovered lost employees faster than other levels of the public sector. Still, given that federal workers skew older with less than a tenth of the workforce being under age 30鈥墆ears and nearly a third reaching retirement age, a true crisis still looms in our administrative state. Using the 2021 Federal Employee Viewpoint Survey Data, we analyze what factors predict turnover intention post-pandemic, focusing the analysis on teleworking and other workplace flexibility policies. We use the findings to make recommendations to help increase employee recruitment and retention within the US federal government.

The effects of COVID-19 on domestic and international security in democratic and authoritarian regimes

Kristen Topping , Yousef Hosny , Lance Y. Hunter and Yufan Yang

2024-04-03

While numerous studies have examined how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected health care systems, supply chains, and economies, we do not understand how the pandemic has impacted the security of democratic and authoritarian states from a global standpoint. Thus, this study examines how COVID-19 has affected the security of democratic and authoritarian regimes. In conducting a historical, qualitative review of the security effects of the pandemic, we find that COVID-19 significantly affected domestic and international security for democratic and authoritarian states in both similar and varied ways. Additionally, the manner in which states responded to the pandemic was often conditioned by their regime type and by the nature of the governing leadership during the pandemic. These findings have important implications in considering how COVID-19 affected the security of democratic and authoritarian states, how regime type shapes government responses to infectious disease outbreaks, and how democratic and authoritarian states may respond to future pandemics.

Artificial intelligence and information warfare in major power states: how the US, China, and Russia are using artificial intelligence in their information warfare and influence operations

Lance Y. Hunter, Craig Albert, Josh Rutland, Kristen Topping, Christopher Hennigan

2024-03-05

Previous research in security studies contends that information warfare (IW) is becoming a critical element in states' overall security strategies. Additionally, many researchers posit that artificial intelligence (AI) is quickly emerging as an important component of digital communications and states' military applications worldwide. However, less is known regarding how states are incorporating AI in their information warfare and influence operations (IWIO). Thus, given the growing importance of AI and IW in global security, this paper examines how the United States, China, and Russia are incorporating AI in their IWIO strategies and tactics. We find that the US, China, and Russia are utilizing AI in their IWIO approaches in significant ways depending on each state's overall IW strategy, with important implications for international security.

Weaponizing Words: Using Technology to Proliferate Information Warfare

Craig Douglas Albert, Ph.D., Lance Y Hunter, PhD, Samantha Mullaney Lieutenant Colonel Joseph Huitt, Lydia Snyder

2023-12-05

The United States risks losing its information advantage over its near-peer competitors, specifically China. One reason behind this possibility is that the U.S. lacks a coherent doctrine of information warfare, which has put the U.S. at a disadvantage. Considering the Russian interference in elections of several North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) states and allies, including Ukraine, Germany, and, the United States, most stunningly in the 2016 presidential election, this article addresses the question: What is to be done? Before delving into possible solutions, the exact nature of the complex problem must be explored. The purpose of this article is to investigate the ways the U.S. could improve in information warfare, specifically against one of its top near-peer competitors, China. First, this article summarizes how China compares with the United States concerning information warfare and influence operations. Second, it delves into some of the definitional chaos in which the U.S. is mired. Thirdly, the article illustrates the doctrinal and data policies of the U.S. Department of Defense. Finally, it concludes with policy recommendations.

Domestic terrorism, incumbency, and legislative vote shares

Lance Y Hunter, Joseph W. Robbins, Martha H. Ginn

2023-11-20

A small number of studies have examined the effect terrorism has on political ideology and vote choice cross-nationally. However, scholars yet to understand how terrorist attack type influences vote choice based on the political ideology of incumbent governments. Thus, we examine the effect domestic and transnational terrorist attacks have on vote choice in legislative elections while accounting for the ideology of the incumbent government. In examining 56 democracies from 1975 鈥� 2014 from various regions and levels of development, we find that domestic attacks, and not transnational, significantly effect both right and left party votes shares when the incumbent party in government is of a similar ideology. We attribute these results to the perception of instability that accompanies domestic attacks and the effects it has on voters鈥� evaluations of political parties. These findings have important implications for understanding how terrorism influences electoral behavior.

The effects of COVID-19 on domestic and international security in democratic and authoritarian regimes

Kristien Topping, Yousef Hosny, Lance Y Hunter, Yufan Yang

2023-10-12

While numerous studies have examined how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected health care systems, supply chains, and economies, we do not understand how the pandemic has impacted the security of democratic and authoritarian states from a global standpoint. Thus, this study examines how COVID-19 has affected the security of democratic and authoritarian regimes. In conducting a historical, qualitative review of the security effects of the pandemic, we find that COVID-19 significantly affected domestic and international security for democratic and authoritarian states in both similar and varied ways. Additionally, the manner in which states responded to the pandemic was often conditioned by their regime type and by the nature of the governing leadership during the pandemic. These findings have important implications in considering how COVID-19 affected the security of democratic and authoritarian states, how regime type shapes government responses to infectious disease outbreaks, and how democratic and authoritarian states may respond to future pandemics.

Destabilizing effects of terrorism on party system stability

2016 In this work, we surmise that terrorist attacks have important implications for two commonly used measures of party system stability. The results of a pooled, cross-sectional time series analysis confirm our hypothesis: deadly attacks proximate to elections destabilize party systems; in addition, the level of democratic consolidation within states also influences the degree that fatal terrorist attacks affect party system stability.

Does accountability matter? How electoral systems affect conflict initiation

2016 In this study we contend that legislators are more accountable individually in candidate-centred electoral systems which impacts a state鈥檚 decision to initiate interstate conflict.

Military Spending and Electoral Systems: A Reconsideration

2016 We present a pooled time-series cross-sectional analysis of military spending and electoral institutions and we find that party-based electoral systems, rather than majoritarian ones, foment higher military spending levels鈥攚hich we attribute to these systems鈥� predilection for public goods spending.

Democracy and cyberconflict: how regime type affects state-sponsored cyberattacks

Dr. Craig Albert, Dr. Lance Hunter, Eric Garrett, Josh Rutland

2022-04-18

A large body of research in international relations has focused on the relationship between regime type (i.e., the degree a nation is democratic or authoritarian) and traditional military conflict between states. However, to date, no research has examined how regime type affects conflict in the cyber domain. Thus, we attempt to analyze the effect regime type has on the initiation of state-sponsored cyberattacks. We examine 143 states from 2005 - 2013 utilizing cyber data on known state-sponsored cyberattacks taken from the Council on Foreign Relations Cyber Operations Tracker dataset (CFR-COTD) and economic, political, military, and social data collected by the authors. In conducting a cross-sectional, time series analysis we find that democratic institutions have a pacifying effect on the initiation of state-sponsored cyberattacks.

Epidemiological intelligence fusion centers: health security and COVID-19 in the Dominican Republic

Craig Douglas Albert, Alejandro Amado Baez, Lance Hunter, John Heslen, Josh Rutland

2022-07-07

Research on health security has focused on how many different political, economic, social, and health-related factors affect disease containment within states. However, largely missing from this scholarship is an examination of the role public health intelligence plays in limiting the spread of disease. Thus, this study focuses on the effect epidemiological intelligence fusion centers have on disease prevalence. We conduct a case study analysis of the Dominican Republic鈥檚 use of epidemiological intelligence fusion centers during the COVID-19 pandemic and provide policy recommendations for other states to follow.

The Fourth Industrial Revolution, Artificial Intelligence, and Domestic Conflict

Lance Y. Hunter, Craig Albert, Josh Rutland & Chris Hennigan

2022-11-22

An emerging field of scholarship in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and computing posits that AI has the potential to significantly alter political and economic landscapes within states by reconfiguring labor markets, economies, and political alliances, leading to possible societal disruptions. Thus, this study examines the potential destabilizing economic and political effects AI technology can have on societies and the resulting implications for domestic conflict based on research within the fields of political science, sociology, economics, and artificial intelligence. In addition, we conduct interviews with 10 international AI experts from think tanks, academia, multinational technology companies, the military, and cyber to assess the possible disruptive effects of AI and how they can affect domestic conflict. Lastly, the study offers steps governments can take to mitigate the potentially destabilizing effects of AI technology to reduce the likelihood of civil conflict and domestic terrorism within states.

The Effects of Social Media, Elites, and Political Polarization on Civil Conflict

Lance Y. Hunter, Glen Biglaiser

2022-12-29

Although prior research has investigated how social, economic, and political factors affect civil conflict, empirical scholarship has yet to consider how social media impacts civil conflict. Using cross-national research for up to 157 states from 2000鈥�2019, this study examines the effect social media has on civil conflict. We find that more time spent on social media, greater social media penetration (i.e. the number of users), and the specific manner elites use social media are associated with an increased number and severity of civil conflicts. We also carry out mediation analysis and see that elite use of social media to organize offline political activities, government elites鈥� dissemination of false information, and political party elites鈥� dissemination of disinformation are all correlated with an increase in political polarization, and polarization raises the likelihood of civil conflict. Our results indicate the ways social media affects political violence, showing how different communication technologies can serve to exacerbate civil conflict under certain conditions.

The effects of social media on domestic terrorism

Lance Y. Hunter, Glen Biglaiser, Ronald J. McGauvran, Leann Collins

2023-01-02

Much qualitative research has drawn an association between social media and domestic terrorism, with the studies reaching different conclusions. However, few empirical studies have evaluated whether the surge in social media participation affects domestic terrorist events. Controlling for common explanations in the literature, we conduct a cross-national, time-series analysis of up to 151 countries from 2000 to 2019 to assess the impact of social media penetration on domestic terrorism. We 铿乶d that greater social media penetration increases the likelihood of domestic terrorism in countries as it supports extremists鈥� ability to recruit, mobilize, and train terrorists. Using mediation analysis, we also find that greater social media penetration amplifies online and political polarization, increasing the likelihood of domestic terrorism events. Our work indicates the possible mechanisms linking social media and domestic terrorism and the need to develop and apply appropriate counterterrorism strategies to mitigate terrorist operations.

Understanding the cyber-victimization of young people: A test of routine activities theory

Candice E. Griffith, Melissa Tezlaff Bemiller, Lance Y. Hunter

2023-01-22

Research on cybervictimization focuses on a variety of behaviors. The present study focuses on four behaviors: hacking, having obscene photos shared, bullying, and stalking/trespass to test the Lifestyles Routine Activities Theory (LRAT). Much of the research on cybervictimization uses LRAT to help explain how some groups of individuals are susceptible to becoming victims. We surveyed young adults, aged 18-25, using a paid Qualtrics sample and a convenience sample from a southern university. Using binominal logistic regression, we test the likelihood of victimization across the various behaviors and with the three main elements of LRAT, motivated offender, suitable target, and absence a capable guardian. We found that online dating was the most likely way to be exposed to a motivated offender, that visiting explicit websites made one a suitable target, and knowing how to set privacy settings helped guard against victimization.

The Double-Edged Sword of Foreign Direct Investment on Domestic Terrorism

Glen Biglaiser, Lance Y. Hunter, Ronald J. McGauvran,

2023-01-27

This paper studies the effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) on domestic terrorism. Using a cross-national, time-series analysis of 114 countries from 1991鈥�2017, and employing structural equation modeling to test a number of mediating factors, we find that the impact of FDI on domestic terrorism depends on the host state鈥檚 level of economic development. For host countries at higher-income levels, FDI boosts economic development and global integration promoting prosperity, increasing counterterrorism resources, and reducing the economic grievances that foster terrorism. Conversely, for lower-income host countries, increased FDI fuels higher domestic terrorism, as it intensifies clashes between traditional and modern elements within society, raises economic discrimination, heightens perceptions of economic insecurity, and subsequently leads to grievances directed against the state. Our results indicate a curvilinear relationship between FDI inflows and domestic terrorism, suggesting that FDI produces a double-edged sword between promoting economic development and increasing domestic terrorism in host states.

Community-level internet connectivity and mental health: an analysis of United States counties

William Hatcher, Lance Hunter, Wesley Meares, Mary-Kate Lizotte, Dustin Avent-Holt

2023-04-09

Background: Access to the Internet is often viewed as a positive feature of communities, but little research has been conducted examining the effects of internet access on mental health at the community level. Aims: To examine the relationship between internet connectivity and mental health in United States (US) counties, an analysis that has not been conducted in the public health literature. Methods: We analyzed predictors of mental health in US counties. Data from the Federal Communications Commission (FCC), the U.S. Bureau of the Census, and the County Health Rankings and Roadmaps were used to construct a time-series regression analysis. The data were available from 2013 to 2016. Results: US counties that increased their internet connectivity over this period also had more citizens report suffering from mental health conditions. Conclusions: Public health needs to focus on the county-level predictors of mental health and how internet connectivity may not always produce positive effects and may be contributing negatively to the mental health of communities.

Social media, disinformation, and democracy: how different types of social media usage affect democracy cross-nationally

Lance Y. Hunter

2023-05-15

Much speculation exists regarding how social media impacts the health of democracies. However, minimal scholarly research empirically examines the effect social media has on democracy across multiple states and regions. Thus, this article analyses the effect social media and disinformation transmitted over social media have on democracy. The findings from a cross-national, time-series analysis of 158 states from 2000鈥�2019 indicate that different types of social media usage have varying effects on democracy. General social media consumption, the presence of diverse political viewpoints on social media, and the use of social media in political campaigns bolster democracy. However, social media disinformation, online political polarization, and the use of social media to organize offline violence reduce overall levels of democracy. In addition, a mediation analysis is conducted to identify the precise linkages between social media disinformation and democracy and indicates that government and political party disinformation impact democracy by weakening key democratic norms.